Vande Mataram

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Opinion on Opinion Polls

Opinion polls serve as eye opener for some and root cause for lethargy for some in politics, especially during the run up to elections. The recent survey taken by some media houses with the help of some companies paste a picture that brings smile on the BJP supporters and makes the Modi supporters exult. The surveys predict a favourable atmosphere for BJP in 3 States going to the polls, with Rajasthan offering it a landslide victory, the Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh voters exude a feel that they will be sticking to the incumbent Government, Delhi appears to be heading for a hung Assembly. One opinion poll gives Congress a slight edge over others in Delhi and a lesser impact in Rajasthan with some gains in Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. But most of them state that it is BJP all over with Delhi giving an unclear mandate.

Well, what does this actually mean? The buoyancy in the Sangh Parivar and the flinch in the face of Secular groups are visible and telling. But is it something for these people to rejoice and lament? No is the answer. This is just a mood of the nation as of now. To keep the momentum going for the Sangh Parivar and do something to save face for the Congress a lot of ground work needs to be done. While we can refer to history and tell that Congress will be doing 'all sorts of ground work' to be in power, we have an example of BJP and its allies dropping the ball in 2004. With commendable growth and a robust economy, the NDA had lost elections to a campaign based on fiction and flippancy towards truth.

We had an unclear verdict in 2009 elections and the secular parties have gathered together with batons and flags to flutter their secular credentials high by keeping the BJP off the Government. There has been a steady supply of scams, irregularities and lawlessness in the Government resulting in restlessness in the public mind. With a Government inundated with all the corruption, an ever soaring inflation and the ministers busy on their ego trip, the people are upset. The imbecile and insensitive nature of the heir apparent of the Congress President gives some relaxation to the people from the worrisome situation they endure daily. There are a lot of videos in youtube which speaks volumes about Rahul's IQ level.

With people suffering from poverty and price rise, his brother in law becoming the most unlawful businessman grabbing not just lands but villages, his party losing popularity day by day in every way, Rahul Gandhi has advised that the poor should dream of a bright future since in his opinion poverty is a state of mind and can be overcome by the thought of being rich. Why was this inherently imbecile advise not given to his brother in law, the largest land grabber in the nation, who would have been content with dreaming of having all the land in the nation and may not have been grabbing!! Rahul has also advised poor farmers to dream of their sons becoming pilot even if their food plates are empty. This man doesn't have a grab of ground reality and just utters his eccentric exhortations in the belief that he is brilliant as believed by his coterie. There have been visible protests against this man by students.

But with all the added advantages for BJP, a close look at the situation reveals it is a deuce. What could be the reason for this? The chronic misinformation about practising secularism is the root cause. Secularism which literally means non-religious, materialistic is being practised as minority appeasement. The people of the minority segment of the population are being fed with  beliefs that the right wingers will be against their interests. The secular groups in Indian politics stoop to unprecedented levels of lowliness to appease the minorities which is definitely at the cost of the people of the majority religion and the national interest. Information has been fed with in such a way that people believe secularism in the way it is practised is the panacea.

Well, what are the options for BJP to get the going in its favour? The Modi wave is in its favour. But beware, the Modi wave is not based on ideology, not based on religion, not based on realising the truth about the state of affairs of the nation. This is anti-incumbency, but coupled with a rare confidence given by a leader who has a track record on growth and governance to speak for him. Modi wave is based on the growth Gujarat has got and the yearning of the common man to get what he has been promised by the Congress in 2004, but not even a pittance moved towards fulfilling those promises. Modi has been proving that a corruption free administration and good governance are practical. With people from Gujarat, bureaucrats and common men alike, vouching for that in all the ways including the ballot box, people in other parts of the nation started wishing to have such a good life.

This has resulted in Modi being accepted as Prime Minister by 59% of the voters in opinion polls. Surveyed on Governance issues voters have expressed confidence that Modi will be able address them better than anyone else who aspire to live in 7 Race Course Road, New Delhi. On the question of favouring a candidate for Prime Ministership, only 23% of voters are against Modi.
45% are highly favourable and 27% are cat on the wall. The opinion polls on 4 States going to polls may have an impact on the mood of the voters when it comes to national general elections, but it will not play any major part in getting the BJP to power at the Centre.

The mood in the saffron camp to ride on the Modi wave will prove detrimental to the chances of making it in 2014. The feel I get from anybody who are somebody in the Parivar or the party is that they wish to sail through the Modi wave. The cadres are in a feel that getting Modi as PM candidate is the task of their lifetime and they have accomplished the mission. It is the responsibility of the leaders to make them realise that projecting Modi as PM candidate is the start of the mission. A battle, a pretty much internal one, has been won. We have a war to fight and that is external where situations will not be fully under our control. I see quite many of the cadres becoming connoisseurs of the Modi campaign and started living in a phantom castle of Modi rule.

Leaders have to wake the cadres up with a slap on the face if that is necessary and ask them get back to the ground to do the work. Opinion polls are not end results. They show us the trend as of now. The party has to keep the momentum till we win in 2014. The opponents will also have their plans to fight it out for their survival. We're fighting a tough battle for the people most of who do not realise that we're fighting for them. With such an ignorant crowd we carry as dead weight, we'll find it pretty difficult to march forward, but we cannot drop the dead weight as we're fighting to get a life to them.

Tough task would be an understatement. What should serve as a shot in the arm has given a feel to the cadres that mission is accomplished. The leaders have a duty to wake them up and lead them in the march ahead to victory on a very tumultuous ground. We have leaders who have weathered many electoral battles, but now is the time to cut the siesta off and get back to work. We cannot even relax after a win in 2014 as we have a Himalayan task of getting the minds right and winning them over forever.

Vande Mataram.

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